Campaign 2004 has already begun in earnest and it is already
becoming one of the most negative campaigns in history.
Campaign 2004 has already begun in earnest and it is already becoming one of the most negative campaigns in history. Another thing that is abundantly clear is that the single most important issue is jobs. Not enough jobs for those who want them. And the best jobs here seem to be moving overseas.
President Bush is treating this malady with the Republican Magic Elixer, tax cuts. The theory goes that cutting taxes improves the economy. It is supposed to act in two ways. Cutting taxes for corporations allows them to put more money into production or to pay more in stockholder dividends. Cutting individual income taxes allow individuals to spend more on consumer products, thus driving sales and jobs.
There are two problems with the logic. The first is that too much of corporate savings goes in to executive compensation. Even Schwarzenegger’s economic adviser, Warren Buffet, asserts that the biggest problem with American business in excessive executive compensation.
The second problem with the Republican strategy is WalMart. While the public has shown a willingness to spend their tax savings on consumer goods, these goods are more likely to be manufactured in China than the United States. I picked on WalMart because they are the largest marketer of goods imported from China. But they are not the only ones. Nearly every one of the “big box” stores with their low, low prices achieve those low prices by importing products from somewhere else, where the labor is less expensive and laws regarding child labor, safe working conditions and environmental protection are not as stringent as in the United States.
The Democrats, led by John Kerry, are very good at telling us that Bush got it wrong and they will do it right. They have not yet said how they will get it right. I have not heard a single speech by Kerry that explains the subject in any more detail than I get from Bush. Both are manipulating the electorate with symbols and slogans without substance. It must be something that they teach at Yale.
I have yet to hear any other candidate get the press to tell us what they would do. Nader might be able to articulate a strategy that makes sense. He is more willing than most to deal with substantive issues on the economy. The Democrats are trying to characterize Ralph Nader as an irrelevant old man on an ego trip. I doubt that, but the strategy will probably work enough to keep those Democrats who blame Nader for the last election from voting for him again.
The only other potential candidate that has the economic background to deal with this issue directly is Peter Camejo, and he has been a rather reluctant candidate in the Green Party. Since no Green candidate yet has enough delegates to win a nomination, this will be settled at the Party’s convention in Milwaukee in July.
I don’t expect Nader or Camejo to win. There are those who are angry enough with Bush to not consider any option other than the Democratic Party candidate and that is OK. It is their choice.
I would still like everyone to consider the following facts when you listen to the rhetoric about jobs and outsourcing over the next eight months.
While the loss of manufacturing jobs is felt in many states, they represent only about 14 pecent of the economy. The service industries represent 60 percent of the economy and it is service jobs that are being outsourced at an increasing rate. Forrester Research has estimated that the U.S. economy will have lost 600,000 jobs by 2005. Deloitte has published an estimate that the number will be over 2 million jobs by 2008.
The value of jobs outsourced to Ireland exceeds that of those outsourced to India. Yet you hear about the one and not the other.
When the United States demand a level playing field for the sale of its products in third world countries, do those countries not have a right to demand the right to compete for the labor market? The consequences of prohibiting job outsourcing in some manner may be increased isolation of the United States and a condemnation that we have become xenophobic at best and possible racist, especially if we allow jobs to go to some countries (Canada or Ireland) vs. other (India or China). With the current popularity of the United States at a low point over Iraq, I do not think that this how we want other nations to think about us. It may win U.S. elections, but it will not help win the war on terrorism.
Let me quote the conclusions of an article that I found in the March 2004 issue of India Currents magazine, which I picked up at the Morgan Hill Library. “What we are seeing is capitalism working in a totally uneven playing field and it will carry on until the playing field is evened out. That is going to be a long and painful process and the world simply may not be able to support its entire population at the standard of living we would like to continue to enjoy.”
When a politician tells you that he has the solution for keeping jobs at home and knows how to stop outsourcing, make them explain how it works. This is a time to ask questions and to question the answers.
“I find I have a great lot to learn ˆ or unlearn. I seem to know far too much and this knowledge obscures the really significant facts, but I am getting on.” – Charles Rennie Mackintosh
Wes Rolley is an artist and concerned citizen. The Board of Contributors is comprised of local writers whose views appear on Tuesdays and Fridays.
