The San Francisco Bay Area is likely to be warmer and wetter than normal for the next three months, forecasters said Nov. 18.

A winter season outlook update shows a higher probability of above-normal temperature and precipitation for December, January and February, the National Weather Service said.

Not every day will be affected the same; the outlook deals in averages.

“The odds slant toward being above normal,” said Brian Garcia, a meteorologist for the weather service’s Bay Area forecast office in Monterey. “We’ll really have to see how it plays out on the finer time scale.”

Pressed to put that into more common language, Garcia said he wasn’t a betting man, but could borrow an illustration from gaming.

“If you went to the horse track and there was a horse that was favored to win, that’s the horse everybody’s going to look at, but it doesn’t guarantee that horse is going to win the race,” he said. 

“Right now the odds are stacked with the winning horse being above-normal temperature and precipitation,” Garcia said.

The outlook divides the period into overlapping three-month chunks. 

Above-normal precipitation is expected for December, January and February, and for January, February and March. 

But precipitation probabilities change to an equal chance of above normal, near normal and below normal for February, March and April.

Above-normal temperature is forecast through April.

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