The late Woody Stephens, the Hall of Fame thoroughbred trainer, served up plenty of country-fried wisdom during his final years around the barns and tracks.
Stephens took immense pride in winning the Belmont Stakes, the final precious gem in the revered Triple Crown series. He won consecutive Belmonts, from 1982 to 1986. So he knew all about the race, and what was required to win in New York.
When asked why so many Triple Crown contenders had staggered and faded in the Belmont, capitulating to the uncompromising demands of pursuing such an exclusive and elusive prize, Stephens invariably would smile and hit a pack of reporters with a favorite punch line.
“You know, it’s funny,” Stephens would say in the days leading into the Belmont. “For a long time, I’ve been hearing about all of these great horses, and their trainers and jockeys. This was finally going to be it – the year a horse would win the Triple Crown.
“All I know is that when you make your way to New York, them buildings get pretty tall once you cross the Hudson River.”
Saturday, the stretch-running flyer I’ll Have Another will try to outlast 11 challengers and symbolically leap those tall buildings.
After chasing down Bodemeister to capture the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, I’ll Have Another is positioned to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed scored the hat trick in 1978.
On Wednesday, I’ll Have Another was installed as the 4-5 favorite, and the anticipation is rising. The Belmont should attract a huge live crowd and a big TV audience on NBC.
It’s been 34 years since racing crowned a king. Since Affirmed held off rival Alydar in ‘78, we’ve seen 11 heralded contestants strike out in the Belmont after winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.
I’ll Have Another is attempting to enter a truly elite winner’s circle; there have been only 11 Triple Crown champions, all time. This is one of the most difficult achievements in sport, and the gaps in history prove it.
There was a Triple Crown winner in 1919, none in the 1920s, three in the 1930s, four in the 1940s, none in the 1950s, none in the 1960s, and three in the 1970s.
When Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (‘78) galloped to glory in fairly rapid succession, the Triple Crown suddenly seemed accessible.
We should have known better. After all, before Secretariat’s incredible runaway in the ‘73 Belmont, there hadn’t been a Triple Crown victor since Citation in 1948.
Twenty one horses have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, only to lose in the Belmont. It isn’t the Double Crown, you know.
Some of the most special horses of my lifetime were unable to prevail over this three-race test. That includes Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm and my personal favorite, Spectacular Bid.
(I’m still bitter. I still curse the name of Ron Franklin, the incompetent jockey who cost Spectacular Bid the Triple Crown with a horrendous ride in the 1979 Belmont.)
Granted, this mission hasn’t proved to be as impossible as, say, the Chicago Cubs winning another World Series. And there are legitimate factors for this short list of Triple Crown champions. Some of the obstacles are old and entrenched. Others are more modern and complex.
Let’s take a look:
The draining schedule – Three races in five weeks. And the third race is the longest. When horses turn for home to complete the 1.5-mile trip, Belmont’s long, exhausting stretch can turn into quicksand. The most talented horses don’t run three races in five weeks other than at Triple Crown time. And none are pushed to go 1.5 miles, except for the Belmont.
Crazy-mad hype in the modern media age – After a horse wins the first two races, the run-up to the Belmont gets intense. Trainers, jockeys and owners that have been through it say they weren’t prepared for the bombardment of attention, disruptions and distractions.
A change in qualifying standards – In the olden days, trainers would try to take more time off between races to save their horses for the Triple Crown campaign. But with so many owners trying to get their horses into the Kentucky Derby, horses are chosen in part by career earnings in graded stakes races.
To ensure a spot in the Derby field trainers are more aggressive in entering their horses in pre-Derby stakes races to accumulate earnings. The necessary advance push may lead to fatigue during the Triple Crown series.
Crowded fields – An increase in traffic that makes the task more problematic. When there’s more traffic, it increases the risk of mayhem and a horse getting bumped, blocked or otherwise prevented from receiving a clear trip. I won’t go into all of the numbers, but the combined field for the three Triple Crown races this year is 42 horses.
When Citation won it all in 1948, the combined field in the three races was 18. The combined field in 1973 (Secretariat) was 24. Heck, I’ll Have Another had to face 19 other horses in just one race, the chaotic Kentucky Derby.
New philosophy I – In racing’s golden age, there was a premium on producing classic horses that would succeed over longer distances. But the game has changed; shorter races are the norm.
So the emphasis is on cultivating powerful, speedy, short-burst sprinters. Wealthy individuals are throwing down large sums of money to buy horses, and they want quick returns on the investment.
Instant success can trigger a quick sale for a profit. Or an early retirement that sets up exorbitant stud fees. Drugs are an unfortunate part of the new-era mix. Trainers search for methods (some unethical) to keep their horses going. Horses aren’t as sturdy now.
(I’ll Have Another’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, has an extensive record of fines and suspensions for violating drug and medication policies in handling his client’s horses. I’ll Have Another has never failed a test for a banned substance. But if I’ll Have Another wins, skeptics will all-but compare the horse to Barry Bonds and dismiss the triumph. Sigh: modern sports.)
If I’ll Have Another gets swallowed up at Belmont, there will be plenty of disappointment. There have been close calls in recent years. Real Quiet lost the Belmont (and the Triple Crown) by a nose to Victory Gallop in 1998. In 2004, the popular Smarty Jones appeared to be on the verge of breaking the Triple Crown drought, only to be overtaken by Birdstone in the final yards.
Winning a Triple Crown is hard work. It requires luck. It requires stamina.
I’ll Have Another is the favorite, but he’ll have to beat the long odds of history to escape the trap of the Belmont stretch.
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©2012 St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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