When it comes to winning games, Bruce Bochy does
more with less. He wouldn’t mind a little more relaxation. With the
dominant pitching staff built around Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain,
Madison Bumgarner and Brian Wilson and a lineup that is so weak you
wonder why Barry Bonds hasn’t come out of retirement, every game’s
a nail-biter at AT&T Park, baseball’s most beautiful
ballpark.
When it comes to winning games, Bruce Bochy does
more with less. He wouldn’t mind a little more relaxation.
With the dominant pitching staff built around
Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Brian Wilson and a
lineup that is so weak you wonder why Barry Bonds hasn’t come out
of retirement, every game’s a nail-biter at AT&T Park,
baseball’s most beautiful ballpark.
The Giants were 34-25 in one-run games en route
to the 2010 World Series championship, including six of their 11
postseason victories. They cobbled together an 86-victory season a
year ago by going 33-22 in one-run games, with Bochy’s managing
earning them six extra victories according to the Pythagorean
standings.
That’s 67-47 in the close games – a .588 winning
percentage, the equivalent of 95-67 over 162 games. If that
particular worm ever turns, there will be no way the Giants can
compete, even with such a powerful pitching staff.
Bochy knows that. So does Brian Sabean, who
enters his 15th season as general manager, the longest run among
current executives. They have their fingers crossed that they won’t
need to be quite as efficient to overtake the Diamondbacks in the
National League West.
With 2010 savior Buster Posey being lost for the
season after a collision at home plate May 25, the Giants dropped
from ninth in the NL in scoring to last, 697 to 570. But that was
then, this is now.
Six simple ways to produce 700-plus runs
in 2012:
1. Posey must return with his rebuilt left ankle
to play at the level he did when he ascended to the majors in 2010.
If he could play 140 games and recreate his .862 OPS from his
rookie season, he would generate about 55 extra-base hits,
20-something home runs and maybe 90 RBIs, depending on how the guys
in front of him – probably Angel Pagan, Freddy Sanchez and Pablo
Sandoval – hit.
2. Sandoval’s improved conditioning and
performance in 2011 earned him a three-year contract. He needs to
stay healthy enough to play 153 games as he did in his first full
season with the Giants (2009). If he raises his game just a tick,
taking his .909 OPS from last season and going beyond the .943 OPS
he had in ‘09, he and Posey could be dynamic hitting
back-to-back.
3. Brandon Belt must hit like he should. A
natural hitter who has flashed the Will Clark gene in his brief
minor-league career, he stumbled to a .225 average in 63 games last
season, in part because he was used out of position in left field.
He should be more comfortable as the regular first baseman and
could elevate the Giants’ production at the position into the
middle of the pack. They ranked at the bottom a year ago, along
with the Dodgers, Pirates, Padres and A’s.
4. Melky Cabrera, acquired from the Royals for
left-hander Jonathan Sanchez, must retain his 2011 form to ensure
there’s no dropoff in right field. The stretch-run trade for Carlos
Beltran helped the Giants finish 13th in the majors with an .801
OPS in right (where Nate Schierholz and Cody Ross had
disappointed). Cabrera never had produced at that level until last
season.
5. The Giants need to win the Pagan-for-Andres
Torres trade. They swapped late-blooming center fielders with the
Mets once they had been established Torres’ 16-homer 2010 was an
outlier, not an indication of things to come. Pagan had a
pedestrian .694 OPS a year ago but stole 32 bases while having only
18 more strikeouts than walks (62-44).
6. Speedy outfielder Gary Brown, ranked as the
team’s best prospect by Baseball America, must contribute in the
second half. The Cal State Fullerton product has Tony Campana speed
and projects as a high-average hitter with average power. He will
be the long-term center fielder, and at age 23 could be advanced
quickly, a la Posey.
And furthermore
Bochy is one of the best managers in baseball.
In four post-Barry Bonds seasons, he has compiled a plus-10 reading
in the Pythagorean standings, including plus-6 last season, when he
turned an 80-82 season into 86-76.
Consistent lack of run support is why Cain, who
will be pursued widely next winter if he’s not signed to a contract
extension, has a 69-73 career record.
It’s going to be difficult to hang onto both
Cain and Lincecum, who can be a free agent in two years. They would
earn at least $40 million combined annually under long-term
contracts, probably $45 million.
Ramon Ramirez, who has made 66 to 71 appearances
in each of the last four seasons, went from the Giants to the Mets
as a key piece of the Pagan-Torres trade.
The garlic fries at AT&T Park are not
overrated. Ditto the Cha-Cha bowl, sold in left field.
