Wouldn
’t’ t it be nice to live in a “swing” state? No, this has
nothing to do with Glenn Miller or Benny Goodman. I am talking
about the upcoming presidential election.
Wouldn’t’ t it be nice to live in a “swing” state? No, this has nothing to do with Glenn Miller or Benny Goodman. I am talking about the upcoming presidential election.
You see, even though we don’t vote until November, the election in California and many other states is already decided. California is going to John Kerry. Since the experts in each campaign already know that, we are not likely to see either candidate visit our state. Oh, Kerry will come here for fund raisers, and Bush may make a token visit, but the real fighting will be done in the “battleground” or “swing” states. Here’s how it works.
Our presidential electoral system is like match play in golf. On the first hole, whether I get a 10 and you get a three, or I get a five and you get a four, you win that hole. So, whether you beat me by seven shots or one shot, we go to the second hole and you are “one up.” Using this format, it is conceivable that I will win the match even though you actually completed the round in fewer strokes, just as it is possible in the presidential election for one candidate to be elected president (Bush) while the other candidate (Gore) received more votes.
So, it’s all or nothing in the electoral system. If the experts are right and Kerry is too far ahead to catch in California, it makes no sense for Bush to spend time and money here. Kerry will get all of California’ s electoral votes.
When you flip on the TV news channels, you may have noticed a map of the United States with some states colored blue and others colored red. Apparently, Kerry has already won all the red states on the on the map that are along the Pacific Coast and in the Northeast, while Bush has won the blue states in the South, the Plains and intermountain region.
The election will be decided in the non-colored states, the swing states, in the middle of the country. Iowa and New Hampshire get to nominate the candidates, but Ohio and its neighbors will elect our next president.
So, these experts I have been talking about take their polls into their latte-filled back rooms (the big decisions are still made in back rooms, but since 1995, they are no longer smoke-filled except in North Carolina) and decide which non-colored states their candidate has a chance to win. This is where the candidates will come and fight for votes.
I remember in high school when my U.S. History teacher, Mr. Sherman (he was a dead ringer for Wally Cox), explained why the founding fathers created the Electoral College, rather than deciding to elect the president through a direct, one Homo sapien-one vote system. Like most things I was taught in high school, I don’ t remember what he said (I was staring at Debbie Glasser), but I recall that they did have a “good” reason.
Far be it from me to argue with the founding fathers, but I wouldn’t mind a presidential electoral system that forced candidates to romance all of us. If our president were chosen by direct popular vote, Bush (setting aside for a moment the fact that he would not currently be president) might decide that spending some time in California could get him an additional million votes that might make a difference when all the votes for the nation are tallied. But he has decided that no expenditure of time and money here will get him the plurality he needs to win the state.
We are one of 50 states that is home to one of every eight Americans, but the rules of the game make it imprudent to campaign here. Our votes have already been counted. It you are concerned about the outcome of the presidential election, call your friends in the Midwest where the election will be taking place.
