The Wolf Watch: Are goalies more important than skaters?

The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn recently looked at Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) candidates. He first noted strong seasons for San Jose forward Macklin Celebrini and Montreal defenseman Lane Hutson. 

The Calgary Flames’ Dustin Wolf, who was born in Gilroy and spent his childhood in Morgan Hill, is often viewed as being in third place, behind that pair.

“But they (Celebrini and Hutson) have not been the best rookies this season,” Luszczyszyn said. “That honor should belong to Dustin Wolf, who is putting himself in the Vezina conversation (Best Goalie in the NHL) as a rookie goaltender. Wolf has almost single-handedly dragged a very poor Flames team into the West wild-card race—that’s how good he’s been. The Calder should be his to lose.”

Luszczyszyn noted the enormous impact a goalie can have versus a skater and backed it up with data. 

He wrote that Wolf’s “Goals Saved Above Expected” mark of 10.9 is a top-10 ranking, landing in the 85th percentile among all goalies. To try to compare apples to apples, he notes that Celebrini’s and Hutson’s Net Ratings land in the 65th percentile among skaters.

That large difference supports his argument that Wolf is the rookie contributing the most to his team this season.

Recent results for Calgary with Dustin Wolf in goal (as of March 3)

Sun. Feb. 23: Won 3-2 vs. San Jose

Thu. Feb. 27: Lost 3-0 at Tampa Bay

Sun. Mar. 2: Lost 2-1 (OT) at Carolina

Season Totals

Wolf’s record: 20-12-3 with a Save Percentage of .913 (#8 in the NHL)

and a Goals Against Average of 2.58

Calgary’s record: 28-23-8, in fifth place in the Pacific Division

The Wolf Watch is a periodic look-in at the career of Gilroy native and ex-Morgan Hill resident Dustin Wolf, goalie for the NHL’s Calgary Flames.

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