The relatively quiet summer at the Morgan Hill Police
Department, followed by last week’s sudden spurt of violent crimes
that ended in a homicide and could foretell more bloodshed in the
coming weeks, demonstrates that historical trends do not always
portray a reliable forecast.
The relatively quiet summer at the Morgan Hill Police Department, followed by last week’s sudden spurt of violent crimes that ended in a homicide and could foretell more bloodshed in the coming weeks, demonstrates that historical trends do not always portray a reliable forecast.
Historically, violent and property crimes jump in the summer months, when school is out, the days are long and the nights are warm, according to local police.
However, this summer crime has been down slightly in categories such as assaults, burglaries and drug offenses.
“We attribute that to the proactive work of the officers on patrol, and also having the street crimes team out on the weekend, gathering intelligence and dealing with people on parole and probation,” Cmdr. Joe Sampson said.
Crime in Morgan Hill, and communities across the country, generally peaks during two notable seasons – the winter months from Thanksgiving through January holidays, and during the summer when more people – both criminals and potential victims – are out enjoying the weather, Sampson said.
During both time periods, aside from the revelry associated with holidays, people consume more alcohol, and that fuels violence resulting from heated disputes, Sampson said.
But last week’s gang-related homicide, stabbing, and beating – all in one night – show that trends are unpredictable, Chief Bruce Cumming noted.
“It did feel like it was a little quieter than usual this summer, but the latter part of September and October have been really busy,” Cumming said.
Specifically, during the months of June, July and August 2008, police reported 71 incidents of simple assault and aggravated assault combined. During the same months this year, that number declined to 59 incidents.
The fatal shooting of Juan Jose Arellano, Jr., 24 of Hollister a week ago, was Morgan Hill’s first homicide in four years.
Cumming also noted that throughout the year, regardless of the season, some “economy related” crimes seem to be on the rise. During the summer, as the recession has continued, burglaries in particular stayed the same this year as last year.
And looking back on the last three years as a whole, crimes related to the increasing financial burden and general stress imposed on residents by the ongoing recession are on the rise.
Those crimes include a variety of thefts and burglaries, as well as domestic violence and public drunkenness.
“I can’t unequivocally say it’s because of the economy, but that’s a possible answer,” Cumming said.
And gang violence could become even more common this fall, as retaliation for Friday’s incidents might follow in the coming weeks, Cumming said.
To combat that, police plan to put extra officers on the streets and improve their interaction with the community.
