On October 12, 1989, a county geologist named Jim Berkland put
his professional reputation on the line. He called the Morgan Hill
Times’ sister paper to the south, The Gilroy Dispatch, and
predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0
would hit the Bay Area sometime between October 14 and 21.
On October 12, 1989, a county geologist named Jim Berkland put his professional reputation on the line. He called the Morgan Hill Times’ sister paper to the south, The Gilroy Dispatch, and predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0 would hit the Bay Area sometime between October 14 and 21.
On October 17, the 6.9 magnitude Loma Prieta quake struck, flattening the Cypress elevated freeway structure, dropping a section of the Bay Bridge, demolishing buildings from Santa Cruz to San Francisco, and killing more than 60 people.
Obviously, Mr. Berkland received undying fame and the respect of his peers.
His method for predicting earthquakes underwent a thorough peer-review, and a refined method is now being used to predict earthquakes and tsunamis.
Right?
Wrong.
Jim Berkland received some short-lived media attention and a two-month suspension from his Santa Clara County job for scaring people and predicting quakes while on the county’s time.
He has been laughed out of the U.S. Geological Survey. Berkland claims a 75 percent success rate in predicting quakes with his method. His peers pooh-pooh his claims.
Though Berkland’s methods may be unorthodox, even quirky and difficult to take seriously, we cannot dismiss there may be something to his predictions.
Just this week, the earthquake prophet appeared to strike again. A 3.7 magnitude quake shook northeast of Morgan Hill Wednesday – two days before and within the 140 miles of Mt. Diablo in Berkland’s latest prediction.
Perhaps it’s time other geologists give his theories another look.
First, he is a trained geologist. His “windows,” based on tidal stresses caused by conjunctions of the sun and moon, have been accepted in the geological literature for decades as having a definite, though small, effect.
Secondly, we admire a man who is willing to put his professional reputation on the line for what he believes to be the truth.
Thirdly, his success in predicting quakes, most notably the Loma Prieta, but many others as well, ensures that if Jim Berkland calls our newspaper predicting the “big one,” we will certainly listen.
Let’s not forget we’re living in earthquake country and Berkland’s work should also serve as a reminder always to be prepared.
