Politics is About to Explode Upon Us

An unusual political season is about to begin seeking our attention. Those who really care may have an unusual opportunity to exert their influence in important matters.

For the first time in many years, the Republican Party does not have a president or vice president running for the GOP nomination. There is not a clear front runner, assured of the nomination, among the many announced candidates (and those yet to announce).

The National Republican Nomination Convention will be held in Minneapolis on Sept. 1-4, 2008 (more than a year away). There is a good possibility we will have an “open” convention. Only the seniors among us can remember such events. An “open” convention means that the delegates from across the country, some pledged to a given candidate, some not pledged, will determine who the Republican nominee is to be.

The convention rules state that the nominee must have a certain percentage of the votes. If none of them reach that number, negotiations take over to release pledged candidates to support other candidates and more votes are taken until there is a winner.

It may be that one candidate goes to the convention with enough pledged delegates that the vote is only a formality. If not, you can see that the selection of delegates becomes very important.

Here is where California and even Morgan Hill become more significant than usual. The California Republican presidential primary on Feb. 4, 2008 will be significantly different than it has been in the past.

In the past, we held a state-wide primary and the candidate with the most votes named all of the delegates from California to the national convention.  The California delegation is the largest at the convention.

In the past, candidates hesitated to campaign in California because the state is so large it was too expensive to compete with the candidate who appeared to be leading. This time, there may not be such a leading candidate.

Further, the rules have changed significantly. We have 58 congressional districts. Republican voters in each congressional district will vote for the candidates. The candidate with the most votes in that district will name three delegates from that district.

What does that mean to the candidate? Normally, heavily Democratic areas rarely see a Republican candidate. Why campaign where there are few potential votes? This time, however; those congressional districts have three Republican delegates up for grabs. Those delegates will be selected by what may be only a handful of registered Republicans in a heavily Democrat district.

I suspect delegate-hungry candidates will be all over the state looking for support (delegates).

What does that change mean to grass roots voters, you and me? Morgan Hill is in the 11th congressional district. This district is shared with Tracy and parts of Stockton. 

Republicans in this district will have a lot more influence upon the majority in the 11th district than they had in state-wide elections. Morgan Hill Republican political activists will have significantly more influence on the selection of our three delegates to the national convention.

Republican candidates hoping to launch successful campaigns must be announced as candidates by the end of next month. They must campaign across the country according to the respective dates of primary elections in various states.

Those interested in delegates from California have from now until Thanksgiving. At that point, the holiday season eclipses politics, for all practical purposes, until January 2008. Then candidates have only January to seek delegates from 58 districts in our state! It will further enhance the significance of grass root activists in getting out the vote for their favorite. 

The political ads in January will likely jam the airwaves and other media. The California Republican Party has chosen not to endorse a candidate in the primary. The California Republican Assembly, the state’s largest partisan organization, will hold its endorsement convention on Nov. 10-11.

The Gilroy/Morgan Hill Republican Assembly will elect and send delegates to that convention. If you want to get involved, you should attend the monthly meetings held on the first Thursdays of the month in the rented facilities of the Church of The Valley in San Martin or by calling (408) 782-7555.

Ben Gilmore is a Morgan Hill businessman. He’s a member of the Board of Contributors, which is comprised of local writers whose views appear in the newspaper on Tuesdays and Fridays.