There is no argument – California is in a crisis. 135 citizens
have stepped up to the plate saying,
“I have an idea about how to fix things.” It appears likely that
Gov. Gray Davis will not win a majority of the recall votes on Oct.
7.
There is no argument – California is in a crisis. 135 citizens have stepped up to the plate saying, “I have an idea about how to fix things.” It appears likely that Gov. Gray Davis will not win a majority of the recall votes on Oct. 7.
Whoever among that 135 candidates who draws the most votes (no primary, no run-off) will become governor Oct. 8. This is not a normal political campaign. Old campaigning rules must be re-evaluated.
Name ID going into the race is far more important. Money is less important in this campaign. If you had big bucks, where would you spend it between now and Oct. 6? You can buy so many ads before folks get turned off. You can hire “experts,” but they only get one vote each.
Even big bucks for dirty tricks and voter fraud will have trouble with limited time, and a series of failed court efforts. Add in the growing significance of e-mail communication. Most of the candidates have their own websites. Supporters can go to them to get the story behind last minute slanders.
On the other hand, a short race (only a few weeks now) favors talk shows and instant e-mail communication. Typically, those media favor the conservative candidate. And they are free to the candidate.
On Aug. 13, I did something I have never done before. I sent an e-letter to every person in my database with an e-mail address in California. In it, I handicapped the candidates. It must have struck a cord. Kudos came back from fourth-generation recipients. That means that simple, five-page letter must have reached 5,000 to 10,000 people.
There are (so far) only four leading candidates and 131 also rans. As I typed Bill Simon dropped out, leaving three leading candidates. I expect the media to begin building up Peter Uberroth as a forth candidate. We’ll see.
Arnold Schwartzenegger has far and away the best public ID. One cannot turn on a TV without seeing his picture, and that is before his ads start to show. He is independently wealthy, has great TV persona and has hired some heavy hitters for staff.
On the flip side, unlike actor Ronald Reagan who had been politically active in the Screen Actor’s Guild, Arnold has little political experience. Something much needed as the next governor faces down the spending lobbies at the tax trough.
Media comments about “campaign speeches without muscle,” are the first of what will be a “piling on” as Arnold’s gaffs and inexperience begin to take their toll. Remember, media needs the sensational to hold listener/viewers and sell their ad space.
Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is the only big name Democrat on the ballot. Except for the “Reagan Democrats” he should draw heavily from the Democrats who choose to turnout. His Hispanic support is eroding. Hispanics are strong family folk and pandering to the homosexual and abortion lobbies is taking a toll.
Cruz has an ambiguous sell: Vote no on recall/vote yes on Bustamante. He may have a problem with union funding – Do they back Davis or Bustamante? If they drain their tanks and a Republican wins, will they have funds in the fall primary? (We vote in March.) I have a hunch they will sit out the recall race in order to influence the primary races and protect their legislative majorities.
State Sen. Tom McClintock is easily the most knowledgeable budget cruncher in the state. “The state controller signs every check drawn against a state bank account.” controller candidate McClintock said during the 2002 election campaign. “That gives him audit authority. If I am controller, I will audit the snot out of every bureaucrat in Sacramento!”
McClintock lost that statewide race by only 1 vote per precinct against only one opponent. He also drew more that 100,000 votes more for controller than Simon drew for governor.
McClintock has been a rock solid conservative in the Assembly and state Senate. Right out of the gate, he introduced his three-part Covenant with California:
• If Davis can illegally triple the car tax, I can use the same authority to roll it back.
• There was clear conflict of interest in Davis’ energy contracts. As governor, McClintock will move to void them.
• (The Legislature) will have 30 days to enact Arizona’s Workers Compensation law – slashing workers comp costs by two-thirds. “And if they fail in 30 days, I’ll take it to the ballot and let them explain to the people why they refused to act while our job market was collapsing.”
After that, he said he would go to lunch. The rest of his first day, he plans to spend, using the authority of governor to eliminate overlapping bureaucracies. That means those with cushy state jobs will fight McClintock like cornered tigers.
Enthusiasm plays a larger roll in a short race – less burnout.
Voter base going into the race is important. McClintock has the most steadfast voter base. His web site is receiving a mountain of $20 and $100 bills. That is fire in the belly. Other candidates will be splitting the votes of those less interested in hardnosed politics. Arnold’s voter base is cosmetic. I predict he will fade as the campaign closes. That is why, I suspect, the left will build up Uberroth as an alternative.
We have an opportunity to do something great. The establishment power brokers are not controling this one. Download signs from or better yet, make your won for left rear and rear left car windows. Make sheets of McClintock for Governor mailing labels and stick them to envelopes as you pay bills. Get involved somehow.
The only poll that counts is on Oct. 7. Others are designed to take you off track. When will we ever have a more qualified candidate for the job at hand with the political mechanics more in our favor.
Ben Gilmore is a Morgan Hill businessman. The Board of Contributors is comprised of local writers whose views appear on Tuesdays and Friday.
