The VTA’s sudden and suspicious
”
discovery
”
of $2 billion dollars in previously unaccounted- for sales tax
revenue doesn’t change the basic fact that extending BART to San
Jose is a bad idea.
The VTA’s sudden and suspicious “discovery” of $2 billion dollars in previously unaccounted- for sales tax revenue doesn’t change the basic fact that extending BART to San Jose is a bad idea.
It’s suspicious because VTA officials understand that to garner the support of VTA directors and, ultimately, voters outside of the areas served by the BART extension, they must not only pay for BART but also for transportation projects in those areas.
To wit: “I’m supportive of the plan as long as we get everything we need in South County,” County Supervisor and VTA Director Don Gage said last week.
The new sales tax projections are based on a forecast by Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, which assumes a stunning 7 percent growth.
It reminds us of the height of the high-tech boom, when cities thought the stock market would never take a dip, and thus handed out fat pension packages that they now struggle to afford.
Let’s not make that same mistake with VTA projections.
We understand that many VTA officials are willing to pay any price to extend BART, but that means our sober voices pleading for fiscal responsibility are that much more important.
Morgan Hill Mayor Dennis Kennedy was exactly right when he warned about the new projections, “… We need to be very cautious because it looks to good to be true, and when something looks too good to be true, it often is.”
He appears to have learned the lessons of history when he added, “Everything looked so rosy [for Measure A] and then the bottom fell out and there’s no guarantee that won’t happen again. Sales tax revenue is typically very volatile and rises and falls with the economy.”
When you factor in the very high likelihood of projection cost overruns and the VTA’s history of overly optimistic ridership projections (look at the poor ridership of the BART to SFO extension), it becomes clear that the suspicious “found” money doesn’t change the math: We cannot afford to extend BART.
Throw in the cost to operate the BART extension and it’s a done deal: There’s no rational justification for extending BART to Silicon Valley.
Abandoning the BART boondoggle frees up billions of dollars of money for other public transit services that cost less to build and operate and that serve a much wider geographic area and a larger population.
Don’t be fooled by “found” money based on unrealistic projections. Extending BART is, was, and likely always will be a bad deal for South County.